The gold price has paused on its recent run higher as the market takes stock of where the US Dollar is headed. The yellow metal has eased to start the week as the ‘big dollar’ ticks slightly higher.
Soft inflation data in the US last week saw the market reappraise the extent of tightening that the Federal Reserve will need to carry out in order to contain price pressures.
With CPI and PPI sliding lower, Treasury yields have backed away from their recent peaks. The benchmark 10-year note he is currently trading near 3.8% after having nudged up against 4.1% just over a week ago. The 2-year bond made a 17-year high earlier this month above 5.1% but it is now back below 4.8%.
The DXY index lost close to 2.25% last week while the gold futures contract only added 1.65%. The index moved to its lowest level since April 2022.
Interest rate markets have placed a high probability of a 25 basis point lift in the overnight target rate when the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) gather on July 26th. With the Fed now in a blackout period ahead of its meeting, the data points in the week ahead could drive market volatility.
The market will see a number of business sentiment surveys as well as retail sales, industrial production, housing market statistics and jobs data. The full calendar can be read here. Something else to keep an eye on might be the US real yield. The inflation-adjusted return from the 10-year part of the curve sometimes has a strong correlation to gold.
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