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WGC Gold Market Commentary: Q4 turbulence ahead

WGC review for September 2023

Gold lost 3.7% in September, with the bulk of the move occurring during the last three days of the month

We attribute gold’s challenging month to an extensive run up in bond yields alongside a stronger dollar. The sell off at the end of the month was also likely the result of a strong adverse reaction to US economic data, a fall in the Chinese local premium and a negative technical breach.

Looking forward

With bond yields continuing to move higher alongside a still buoyant US economy, gold is likely to face continued turbulence over the next few weeks

But we don't see a material down trend being established as support remains from fragile equities, rising recession risk, inflation volatility and continued central bank interest in gold. This could represent a buying opportunity to some investors should the market become excessively short.

End-of-month woes

The gold price oscillated between US$1,900 and US$1,950 for most of September until a sharp dip on the 27th took the price to US$1,871 finish and a 3.7% m/m loss. A strong US dollar during the month led to more modest m/m drops in EUR, JPY and GBP.

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